Futures Table is a method in a scenario process that offers a structured approach to analyse how different variables of a trend, development or change signal may develop in the future.
Name of Method
Brief description
Futures Table is a method in a scenario process that offers a structured approach to analyse how different variables of a trend, development or change signal may develop in the future.
Type/Level of Method
Challenges
Futures table is typically a participatory process that engages several stakeholders to create images of alternative futures and encourages long-term thinking in complex issues such as reaching zero-carbon society.
Problem, Purpose and Needs
Futures table is a method within a scenario process. Scenarios are plausible descriptions of a future state and the actions that have lead to it. The biggest value in scenarios is that they help us thinking different and alternative futures and provide us with future-oriented information to which we can base decision-making and action in the present.
The steps of scenario process are:
1. Select the subject, goal and research questions
2. Horizon scanning
3. Futures table
4. Future images
5. Scenarios
6. Conclusions
Futures table can be used as an individual method. It is, however suggested, that it is based on horizon scanning and the end-result are reflected within future states.
Future states are “snapshots” of the future, that describe the end states of scenarios. Futures table is a method to create those images of future. The futures table shows the key tensions and uncertainties (variables) of the topic of research topic and their possible, alternative development directions (values).
A futures table is precisely defined framework about the future that contains the most important aspects of change. It is on purpose polarised to allow discussing meaningful alternative development directions. By showing the differences we can identify meaningful changes and discuss about trends, events, technologies, behaviour changes, and changing values that hint towards certain development direction.
Futures table is based on the morphological analysis by
Fritz Zwicky (Zwicky 1967; Zwicky & Wilson 1969).
Relevance to Climate Neutrality
Challenges
Thematic Areas
Impact Goals
Issue Complexity
Issue Polarisation
Enabling Condition
Essential Considerations for Commissioning Authorities
Engagement Journey
Governance Models and Approaches
Enabling Conditions
Democratic Purpose
Spectrum of participation
Communication Channels
Actors and Stakeholder Relationships
Participant Numbers
Actors and Stakeholders
Participant Recruitment
Interaction between participants
Format
Social Innovation Development Stage
Scope
Time commitment
Future tables can be created in a workshop or as a part of a longer scenario process that can last from a couple of weeks to several months. The time spent depends on the end-use of the exercise.
Meaningful and feasible future tables typically require background work, a horizon scanning, that deserves a considerable amount of time to become deep enough.
Resources and Investments
Typical duration
Resources and Investments
In-house
Step by Step
A futures table is a tool for imagining radical futures and exploring the largest uncertainties.
Futures table consists of a set of variable and their values. Variables are created trough a process of horizon scanning that identify and analyse different change phenomena that impact the topic. The aim of the horizon scanning is to create a holistic understanding of the researched topic and identify those uncertainties and tensions that are most central for the topic.
Horizon scanning includes
1) megatrends: global, macro-level phenomena that are expected to have large and long-term implications on society.
2) medium-sized things trends: general tendency or direction of a development or change over time (shorter term)
3) uncertainties and tensions: uncertainties have alternative development directions with no clear trend currently.
Tensions have different forces acting in opposition to each other.
4) weak signals and wild cards: Weak signals are signs of an emerging issue or an early warning or an early indication of a change that may be significant in the future. Wild cards are events that have low probability but high impact
In practice the horizon scanning is done trough a desktop analysis, interviews with experts and researchers, stakeholder interaction and workshops. A practical tool to conduct horizon scanning is to adapt PESTE/V framework that aims to map out changes in policitical, economic, social, technological, environmental / values environment.
II Futures table
Futures table is a framework that defines the potential diversity of the explored futures.
Futures table is built upon the uncertainties and tensions recognized in the horizon scanning. These are taken into a table to create future states, with the tensions and uncertainties being variables, and their alternative development direction values. It is important to make sure that the values are excluding each other so that so that future states are different enough.
Review the results of horizon scanning
List relevant issues and make them abstract and create categories with different development options
Create a list of 5-10 most important uncertainties (variables)
Make sure that at least some of the uncertainties are exogenous, i.e. not directly linked to the subject of research, so that the scope is wide enough.
Create 2-5 different development options (value) for each uncertainty (variable) that exclude each other
Create a table that includes variables and their different values.
III Creating a future state based on futures tables
Future states are snapshots of future. Future states are created by:
1. selecting one value from each variable and
2. combining these to a description of that future state.
Future states are usually written narrations of different futures based on the horizon scanning, futures table and creative thinking that brings forward interlinkages of their elements. It is important to aim to create future states that differ from each other.
Evaluation
Futures tables should be tested with different stakeholders: how do they resonate? Are the variables interesting enough?
Connecting Methods
Flexibility and Adaptability
Usually futures tables and futures states are part of a longer scenario process but they can be used on their own to depict possible futures and make conclusions based on that. However, to provide deep insight, it is recommended that futures table is based on the horizon scanning that can be more time consuming if done properly.
Existing Guidelines and Best Practice
It is important to make sure that values in futures table exclude each other so that the different alternatives are diverse enough.
PESTEV, with values included, is a useful framework to provide a diverse overview of different changes phenomena based on which variables are chosen.
It is important to include variables that are external to the researched subject. For example, if the futures table describes the
cities and the transformation of their built environment, other variables such as technology, politics and people’s behaviour could be taken into account since cities don’t evolve independently of these external factors.
References and Further Resources
Futures Table Guide – A Powerful Scenario Planning Tool — Futures Platform
Tom Richey: Morphological analysis
Lätti, R. et al (2022): Skenaarioiden rakentaminen tulevaisuustaulukkomenetelmällä in Tulevaisuudentutkimustutuksi – perusteita ja menetelmiä. Heikkilä et al. Tulevaisuuden tutkimuskeskus Turun yliopisto.
Neuvonen, A. et al (2014): Low-carbon futures and sustainable lifestyles: A backcasting scenario approach. Futures. Vol 58. 66-76.
Neuvonen, A. et al (2017):, Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures, Futures, Vol 86, 73-83.
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