This report examines how four European Mission cities Umeå, Tampere, Valencia, and Parma are integrating anticipatory governance approaches into their climate planning to better navigate uncertainties while pursuing climate neutrality. As participants in both the EU Climate- Neutral and Smart Cities Mission and the Adaptation Mission, these cities are developing innovative strategies to enhance resilience and adaptability in their climate transition work.

Anticipatory governance encompasses forward-looking approaches that help cities prepare for multiple possible futures rather than simply reacting to events as they occur. The report highlights three key components of anticipatory governance that cities are implementing to varying degrees:

• Strategic foresight and scenario planning: Developing plausible future scenarios to test the robustness of climate strategies under different conditions.
• Risk and vulnerability assessment: Identifying and evaluating potential hazards and vulnerabilities, and assessing how planned climate actions might be affected by future disruptions.
• Adaptive management: Establishing flexible governance structures with monitoring systems, trigger points, and contingency plans that allow for course corrections as conditions change.

The comparative analysis reveals that while all four cities have developed comprehensive frameworks to guide their climate action, they are at different stages of maturity in implementing anticipatory governance practices. All cities have conducted risk and barriers assessments as part of their Climate City Contract (CCC) development, primarily focusing on economic, financial, and social risks. However, more complex risks such as geopolitical disruptions or systemic cascading effects are not yet fully integrated into planning processes.

Key findings include:

• Scenario-based approaches are embedded in all cities' climate planning, though with varying degrees of sophistication and application.
• While monitoring processes are well-developed across all cities, formal adaptive management practices are not yet common.
• All cities face similar challenges: limited human and financial resources, data gaps and reliability issues, communication difficulties, and institutional fragmentation.
• Cities are increasingly recognizing the value of integrating forward-looking approaches (more traditionally associated with climate adaptation) into mitigation planning to build more resilient transition pathways.

The report identifies several opportunities for enhancing anticipatory governance:

Establishing more robust adaptive governance structures with clear review mechanisms and trigger points

Developing methods to identify "no-regret" climate mitigation actions that remain viable across multiple future scenarios

Implementing diverse and complementary solutions rather than relying on singular strategies

Strengthening cooperation across cities and multi-level governance to share knowledge and expertise