Futures Thinking is a broad umbrella of approaches that support people to think about, cope with, and imagine what is likely to happen, and what could happen, in the future.
Name of Method
Brief description
Futures thinking could support residents in a city that relies on carbon-intensive industry to envision how a low-carbon economy might look like and what benefits it could bring. Relatedly, it can address public resistance to climate action by making the possible benefits more tangible to people, which also helps tackle short term thinking.
Type/Level of Method
Challenges
Problem, Purpose and Needs
Futures thinking primarily aims to address a key barrier to effective climate action, which is short termism. This is partly a very human barrier, in that it is difficult to think about an uncertain, and possibly alarming future, without feeling overwhelmed or hopeless. It is also partly a political barrier, in that politicians are frequently driven to make short term promises, bounded by election cycles, on the assumption that citizens only care about short term interests – although evidence suggests this is not always the case.
Relevance to Climate Neutrality
Challenges
Thematic Areas
Impact Goals
Issue Complexity
Issue Polarisation
Enabling Condition
Essential Considerations for Commissioning Authorities
Futures thinking encompasses a range of methods and tools, and should be used as part of a wider citizen engagement process rather than in isolation. The outcomes of a future thinking exercise should be shared widely with decisionmakers and broader publics.
Engagement Journey
Governance Models and Approaches
Enabling Conditions
Democratic Purpose
Spectrum of participation
Communication Channels
Actors and Stakeholder Relationships
The stakeholders involved and their role will vary according to the specific method of futures thinking used, and its purpose. Industry and technology communities may provide input by informing participants about likely technological developments. Researchers and NGOs may do the same for likely social, cultural and economic changes in the future. Citizens or stakeholders could be participants in a futures thinking exercise, or even policymakers. Whoever the participants are, they should be supported by a facilitator who guides them through the activity.
Participant Numbers
Actors and Stakeholders
Participant Recruitment
Interaction between participants
Format
Social Innovation Development Stage
Scope
Time commitment
Implementing futures thinking as a form of citizen engagement will require a different amount of time depending on the specific method used. However, it certainly should not be rushed, given that it usually involves a learning phase whereby participants learn about likely future scenarios before moving on to envisioning alternative futures.
Resources and Investments
Depending on the precise method or tool used, futures thinking might require video production capacity, if this is the intended output. Here’s an example from the Scottish Climate Assembly.
Typical duration
Resources and Investments
In-house
Step by Step
Futures thinking is an overall approach that can be used to engage citizens in long term thinking about climate change and actions. There are a wide variety of tools that do this which cannot all be listed here. Core elements include:
- Identifying and understanding the problem or issue
- Conceptualising likely futures
- Creating a sense of agency about the future
- Envisioning alternative or preferred futures
Possible methods and tools include:
Tools and techniques that support futures thinking include:
- Storytelling or storyboarding
- Mapping exercises
- Drawing
- Brainstorming
Besides the above, there are many more methods and tools that can support futures thinking. Selecting the right approach should be informed by the specific context, problem to be addressed, and needs of the community to be engaged.
Evaluation
Connecting Methods
Deliberative processes
Participatory design
Scenario planning
Flexibility and Adaptability
Futures thinking is an umbrella term that includes a wide range of methods and tools, so it should be possible to find the right one that works for your needs. One core principle that shouldn’t be violated is that powerful stakeholders or decisionmakers should not be able to influence the content of futures thinking activities. This can decrease participants’ sense of agency, constrain imagination and push an agenda onto participants.
Existing Guidelines and Best Practice
Deliberative Futures toolkit proposes a deliberative participatory approach and includes guides on several different activities.
“SCHOOLING FOR TOMORROW” gives a comprehensive overview of futures thinking approaches.
References and Further Resources
Imagining2050 (2020). Deliberative Futures Toolkit. University College York. https://www.marei.ie/imagining-2050-toolkit/
Poussa, L. (2021). How to popularize futures thinking? Designing a training concept to support people’s sense of agency toward the future. Masters Thesis, Laurea University of Applied Sciences. https://www.theseus.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/506729/Poussa_Liisa_thesis_How%20to%20popularize%20futures%20thinking_2021.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y
Smith, G. (2021). Can Democracy Safeguard the Future? Polity Books.
NetZeroCities guidebook on Anticipatory Climate Governance
NetZeroCities case studies on anticipatory climate governance (4 cities)
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